El Niño, Likely To Achieve ‘Super’ Status By End Of 2026, Continues To Strengthen Towards Record-Breaking Territory

The strengthening of El Niño continues as hurricane season enters its peak, with the current trajectory still indicating the climate phenomenon could be one of the strongest ever this upcoming fall or winter, according to long-range outlooks.

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Per the FOX Forecast Center, agencies use an invisible box in the Pacific Ocean called Niño 3.4 to track temperatures in the water. This helps classify El Niño and La Niña conditions.

For El Niño to achieve “super” status, Pacific Ocean temperatures are required to be 2 degrees Celsius higher than the average over a period of three months. (RELATED: First US Deaths Related To Diarrhea-Causing Parasite Reported In Michigan)

As of early August, the Niño 3.4 water temperatures are 1.5 degrees Celsius higher, categorizing El Niño as strong.

With this being the case, a declaration for a Super El Niño is not expected in the near future, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

Since 1970, five Super El Niño events have been recorded, and in the aftermath, a rapid decline into La Niña or neutral conditions has occurred, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

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The Super El Niño of 1997 is the strongest in history, and it’s likely that it will compare most closely to the 2026 edition of El Niño. That said, forecast models suggest 2026 could produce the strongest El Niño ever.

There isn’t a clear timeline regarding when a Super El Niño will be achieved. Still, according to the three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Southeast is expected to receive above-average precipitation from September-November. It’s also anticipated that parts of the Four Corners and the Southwest will be getting precipitation above the average mark.

Fall and winter will likely carry the most severe impacts from the Super El Niño.

The Eastern and Central Pacific continue to see an active hurricane season due to El Niño, while the Atlantic is experiencing limited development.

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