{"id":876,"date":"2026-05-30T22:36:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T22:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hometransferguide.com\/?p=876"},"modified":"2026-05-30T22:36:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T22:36:12","slug":"new-poll-dashes-gops-wildest-dreams-for-california-gubernatorial-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hometransferguide.com\/?p=876","title":{"rendered":"New Poll Dashes GOP\u2019s Wildest Dreams For California Gubernatorial Election"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A new poll suggests Republicans\u2019 longshot hopes of taking the California governor\u2019s mansion could end with a shutout in Tuesday\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n

Read more Kelsey Grammer Reveals Nickname For Karen Bass As He Endorses Spencer Pratt For LA Mayor<\/a><\/p>\n

Three candidates stand head and shoulders above the rest of the crowded field: Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra polls in first place at 28% support, Democratic billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer polls in second place at 22% support, and Trump-backed Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton is in third at 21% support, according to an Emerson College survey released Saturday. Since the top two vote-getters Tuesday will advance to the general election regardless of party, Republicans would be locked out of November\u2019s ballot if these numbers hold.\u00a0(RELATED: Tom Steyer Celebrates Biological Boy Who Won Girls\u2019 Sports Titles)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The survey found the race\u2019s other major Republican candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, came in a distant fifth place with 12% of support. All other candidates polled in single digits: scandal-plagued former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan each polled at 5% support and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa polled at 2%. Five percent of respondents were otherwise undecided.<\/p>\n

The recent polling is the mirror image of late 2025 and early 2026, during which multiple \u00a0\u2014\u00a0including one from Emerson College \u2014 showed Hilton and Bianco as the two leading candidates, essentially tied for the lead. This bolstered Republicans\u2019 ambitious hopes that deep-blue California would, due its unusual primary system and a fractured Democratic field, send two GOP candidates to the general election.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis poll should be a wake-up call for every Republican in California. An all-Democrat top two is no longer just a possibility. It\u2019s a real threat,\u201d Hector Barajas, spokesman for Steve Hilton, told the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF) in a statement.<\/p>\n

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Spokespersons for Becerra\u2019s and Steyer\u2019s campaigns did not immediately respond to the DCNF\u2019s requests for comment.<\/p>\n

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Republican candidate Steve Hilton participates in a California gubernatorial debate at the East Los Angeles College Auditorium in Monterey Park, California, on May 5, 2026. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cThe numbers show that Steve Hilton is the only Republican with a realistic path to the general election. If Republicans want Californians to have a real choice in November and a chance to end 16 years of one-party rule, we need to unite now,\u201d Bajaras added. \u201cThis race is bigger than any one candidate. It\u2019s about giving working people a voice against the political machine that has made California unaffordable, unsafe, and unaccountable.\u201d<\/p>\n

The May Emerson College poll also found that out of all the candidates, the two Republicans had the most loyal supporters. For respondents who said they would back Hilton and Bianco, 88% for both said they would \u201cdefinitely support him\u201d and not change their minds come Tuesday.<\/p>\n

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By comparison, 76% percent of Becerra voters and 74% of Steyer voters said the same. Among respondents who said they were voting for Porter, less than half, 48%, said they will definitely continue to support her and a majority, 52%, said they could change their minds, according to the survey.<\/p>\n

Porter, a former frontrunner in the race, plummeted in support after reports surfaced suggesting she had abused her staff and her now-ex-husband. (RELATED: Democrat Accused Of Pouring Scalding Potatoes Over Ex-Husband\u2019s Head Offers Cooking Tips In Exchange For Donations)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Golden State gubernatorial race\u2019s landscape looked completely different at the time of Emerson College\u2019s 2025 survey, which had both Becerra and Steyer \u2014 now the two leading candidates \u2014 at just 4% support. Bianco, at the time, led with 13% of polled support, Hilton tied for second at 12% with then-Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, and Porter polled close behind at 11%.<\/p>\n

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Four months after this poll\u2019s release, Trump endorsed Hilton while multiple women came forward with allegations of sexual assault and rape against Swalwell. Following extensive pressure from his party, Swalwell dropped out of the gubernatorial race April 12 and resigned his seat in Congress the following day. The disgraced lawmaker\u2019s exit paved the way for Becerra and Steyer to go from longshot candidates to frontrunners in a short period of time.<\/p>\n

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Eric Swalwell attends \u201cOur Climate Future: A Forum with California\u2019s Next Governor\u201d on January 28, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Matei Horvath\/Getty Images for California Environmental Voters)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

After Swalwell\u2019s sudden exit and multiple polls showing an all-GOP general election was possible, California Democrats pivoted in strategy from rallying around one frontrunner to instead focusing on turning out their party\u2019s support in the June primary, CNN reported May 8.<\/p>\n

Term-limited Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom told the outlet at the time that \u201cPeople are not passive in terms of watching it happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere have obviously been many conversations about this for many months, and people have been watching closely with daily tracking polls, and there\u2019s sort of an organized construct around seeing where things go, and to the extent necessary, taking certain actions to encourage that that\u2019s not the outcome,\u201d Newsom added, referring to the prospect of Democrat candidates getting locked out of the November election.<\/p>\n

The outgoing governor has yet to endorse a candidate to succeed him and told CNN in May he had no immediate plans to.<\/p>\n

Hilton told the DCNF in a December 2025 interview that, although polling at the time showed him and Bianco at the top of the pack, the chances of the Republicans\u2019 dream election scenario in California \u201cactually happening are zero.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no way that the scenario that some people are talking about will come to pass,\u201d Hilton said at the time. \u201cThere will be one Republican in the general election, and I\u2019m very confident that that will be me.\u201d<\/p>\n

Emerson College surveyed 1,000 voters likely to cast ballots in California\u2019s all-party primary from May 27\u201328. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and used data sets weighted by party registration, region, and other demographic factors.<\/p>\n

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter\u2019s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact\u00a0licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.<\/p>\n

Read more Mamdani\u2019s Bone-Chilling Pledge Shows Depths He\u2019s Willing To Go With Government Force<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll suggests Republicans' longshot hopes of taking the California governor's mansion could end with a shutout in Tuesday's primary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[166,1284,206,349,1285,116,1286,1287,1288,222,1289,1290,1291],"class_list":["post-876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting","tag-california","tag-chad-bianco","tag-election","tag-elections-2026","tag-emerson-college","tag-eric-swalwell","tag-governor","tag-katie-porter","tag-poll","tag-primary","tag-steve-hilton","tag-tom-steyer","tag-xavier-becerra"],"yoast_head":"\nNew Poll Dashes GOP\u2019s Wildest Dreams For California Gubernatorial Election - Home Transfer Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hometransferguide.com\/?p=876\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Poll Dashes GOP\u2019s Wildest Dreams For California Gubernatorial Election - 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