Virginia & Maryland’s School Enrollments Are Down, But Declining Birth Rates Only Tell Part Of The Story
Experts seem to be missing an important piece of the puzzle when trying to explain the reasons behind public school enrollment rates declining in Maryland and Virginia — while public school enrollment rates fall, homeschooling rates are increasing.
According to WTOP, public school enrollment rates have decreased in both states, and experts are citing the reasons as “declining birth rates, immigration and migration patterns, and housing costs.” While this is certainly the case by and large, another change appears to be affecting enrollment.
Homeschooling rates have increased in both states, likely affecting the rate of enrollment in public schools.
Notably, the University of Virginia (UVA) Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service released an enrollment projection for Virginia public schools in March. The data showed that in 2025 alone, K–12 enrollment dropped 1.2 percent or 14,939 students. Prior to that, enrollment rates had remained relatively stable from 2021 to 2024. The Cooper Center predicted that in 2030, enrollment will have fallen by 3 percent, or by 36,827 students.
Meanwhile, homeschooling rates in Virginia have risen by 8,342 students from the 2022–23 school year to the 2025–26 school year, according to the Homeschool Hub State Data produced by Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub.
In Maryland, 2025 saw a drop of 11,322 students from the year prior, according to The Baltimore Banner. The Banner noted that a factor in the decrease in the public school enrollment rate was likely homeschooling.
“The drop in enrollment reflects a decline in birth rates starting in 2016 and a 51 percent increase in homeschooled students since the pandemic,” The Banner stated
According to the Homeschool Hub State Data, the number of homeschoolers in Maryland has increased by 1,084 students since the 2022–23 school year, though it has fluctuated more than Virginia’s numbers.
The pandemic certainly had a hand in increasing the number of homeschoolers. According to the Homeschool Hub State Data, Maryland saw a jump from 27,754 homeschoolers in the 2019–20 school year to 44,941 during the 2021–22 school year. While that number has since decreased, homeschooling still remains more popular in Maryland than before, at 40,653 students during the 2025–26 school year. (RELATED: Does This Sunshine State School Hold The Blueprint For Young Americans’ Educational Future?)
Virginia saw an increase from 38,382 homeschoolers in the 2019–20 school year to 59,638 during the pandemic. The numbers dropped for two years following the end of COVID-19 but have now returned to near-pandemic levels with 59,055 homeschoolers in the 2025–26 school year.
Still, another likely driver behind the drop in public school enrollment and increase in the number of homeschoolers — at least in Virginia — has been the extensive backlash against transgender policies and lack of transparency regarding assaults by public school officials that has rocked the region over the last several years.
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Former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin advocated for school choice and signed HB2598 into law last year, reinforcing homeschool privacy laws and requiring school superintendents to submit explanations of how they were obligated to fulfill those protections.
During his bid for governor, Youngkin focused on sexual identity policies in Virginia public schools and the schools’ attempts to cover up resulting assaults. Changing the terms of the education debate and adopting the message that “parents matter” played a large role in getting Youngkin elected. (RELATED: Glenn Youngkin Launches National Non-Profit To Promote Trump’s Scholarship Tax Credit)
In Maryland, Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) lost 4,504 students last year compared to 2022–23, according to county data, WTOP said. MCPS and other Maryland school districts became the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights in June, alleging Title IX violations.
The allegations contended that, under Maryland law, Maryland school districts required boys to compete in girls’ sports if that was what they preferred and to access girls’ restrooms and locker rooms. When girls complained, they allege that school officials told them to find other restrooms to use.
MCPS has also faced scrutiny after an investigation found school leaders tampered with an investigation into a middle school principal’s alleged sexual harassment and workplace bullying in 2023, according to the Washington Post.
Further investigations found that the same school district had nearly 30,000 employees with expired criminal background checks, and 4,900 had not undergone their Child Protective Services checks.
Virginia public schools have caused parental backlash over scandals and various policies on transgenderism. Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) is currently undergoing an investigation by the Trump Administration into an alleged incident involving a transgender student filming two boys in the bathroom.
An LCPS boy was convicted in 2021 for raping a girl in the Stone Bridge High School bathroom while wearing a dress, and a Christian teacher was reportedly suspended for refusing to use preferred pronouns.
Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) faced an investigation last year when a Centreville High School social worker reportedly took a 17-year-old girl to get an abortion and offered to pay for it and keep it a secret from the girl’s parents. The scandal led to demonstrations by parents’ rights groups and individuals outside the school.
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