Bread And Circus: Trump’s $5,000 Dividend Plan Sets Off Bond Market Turbulence, Inflation Fears

Bread And Circus: Trump’s $5,000 Dividend Plan Sets Off Bond Market Turbulence, Inflation Fears

President Donald Trump announced Wednesday night that if the GOP wins the midterm election, over an estimated trillion dollars will be spent on giving “dividends” to voters — as even many on the right raise concerns over how this could affect the bond market and inflation, with some calling it a straight-out bribe for Republican votes.

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Trump announced the $5,000 checks to every American adult during his speech at the 2026 RNC Midterm Convention — in Dallas, Texas — with the caveat that the money must be spent in the U.S. (RELATED: Fetterman Praises GOP Colleague, Vows To Work With Trump In Midterm Convention Video)

“So, if the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000,” Trump said. “It will be called the Trump Dividend.”

Funding for the checks aside, many, like Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, said that although he is “hugely in favor of winning the midterms, and love[s] much about this admin,” he is “strongly against bread and circus bribes.”

A number of Democrat lawmakers are leveling a similar line of criticism, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who said that “Trump is trying to buy votes with taxpayer-funded blood money.”

Even Republican Texas Rep. Chip Roy referred to the dividend as “dependency,” which he described as “evil & soul-sucking in all its forms.”

When asked if Trump was trying to buy votes, Vice President JD Vance told Bret Baier that “if you keep us in power and allow us to continue to do these things, then you’re going to share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that, that we’re, we’re creating in the United States of America,” according to the Daily Beast.

“I don’t think it’s a controversial idea,” Vance added, saying that the funding is the result of “an extraordinary amount of revenue” for foreign countries and companies that have taken advantage of American workers “for pretty much my entire life.”

However, the New York Times reported that this payoff would cost roughly $1.3 trillion, at a price that could further damage a bond market that has already seen rampant volatility since the beginning of U.S. strikes on Iran.

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Economists such as Peter Schiff, who remains critical of the president, said that even though bond investors don’t believe the Republicans have a shot at maintaining the House come November, they are still “dumping Treasuries, sending yields to new highs.”

He added that since the Federal Reserve will need to print the money for the “$5,000 bribe,” this could result in “massive inflation, well in excess of anything experienced under Biden.”

The announcement comes as bond investors are already losing patience with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent after abruptly introducing a new bond-buying plan to lower the interest rate the federal government would need to pay on its long-term debt, Politico reported.

The Treasury’s two-year yield rose 10 basis points as of Thursday morning to 4.53 percent, possibly signaling that bond markets are already reacting to the perceived risks of additional government spending.

Not only would Republicans need to win the midterms for the dividends to be approved, but Congress would need to approve them as well.

Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz told Politico that he would hope to add work requirements to the dividends, and said that specifics would need to be hashed out.

He acknowledged that “$1.3 trillion is a massive amount,” but said that it is still less than if the Democrats were to win and spend like “drunken sailors.”

Former President Joe Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) has been criticized by a number of economists for kicking off a rapid rise in inflation during his presidency. According to the fiscal scoring, Biden’s signature legislation cost an estimated $1.9 trillion, just slightly more than what President Trump is currently proposing.

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